奥巴马(Barack Obama)为何如此迫切地希望达成《跨太平洋伙伴关系》(Trans-Pacific Partnership，简称TPP)贸易协定?啰嗦的官方答案是，这位美国总统认为该协定将打破12个太平洋主要经济体之间的壁垒，并由此促进繁荣。简短而真实的答案是：中国。为何这么说呢?详细请看下面的双语新闻：

　　The crucial fact about the TPP is that it is a trade deal that would include the US, Japan and 10 other Pacific-rim economies — but exclude China. Much of the Washington controversy surrounding the TPP is the standard stuff thrown up by trade negotiations: arguments about farmers, currency and intellectual property. But the underlying motivations of Mr Obama and Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, are strategic.关于TPP的关键性事实在于，这是一个将包含美国、日本以及另外10个环太平洋经济体的贸易协定——但将中国排除在外。华盛顿方面围绕TPP的大量争论，是贸易谈判抛出的标准内容：关于农民、汇率以及知识产权的争论。但是奥巴马和日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)的根本动机是战略性的。

　　Unfortunately for Washington and Tokyo, however, the TPP — even if it happens — is not a significant enough step to justify all the geopolitical hopes invested in it.然而，对于华盛顿和东京方面而言不幸的是，即使真的达成，TPP也没有重要到足以证明：它被寄予的所有地缘政治希望都是合理的。

　　Debating the strategic logic behind the TPP has been difficult because, until recently, the US has not been frank about the reasons for China’s exclusion. The official line is that the Chinese economy is just not open enough to merit inclusion. A couple of weeks ago, however, Mr Obama came closer to acknowledging that the TPP is about much more than trade when he told The Wall Street Journal that it was crucial to get the deal because: “If we don’t write the rules, China will write the rules?.?.?.?We will be shut out?.?.?.?We don’t want China to use its size to muscle other countries in the region.”很难去争论TPP背后的战略逻辑，因为美国直到最近仍然没有坦白说出将中国排除在外的原因。官方说法是，中国经济的开放程度不足以被纳入TPP。然而，几周前当奥巴马接受《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)采访时，他距离承认TPP远远超过贸易范畴靠近了一步。在这次采访中，奥巴马表示，达成TPP协定至关重要，因为“如果我们不制定规则，中国将制定规则……我们就会被排斥在外……我们不希望中国利用其规模来强迫该地区的其他国家”。

　　Mr Obama still framed the argument in economic terms. But others in the US foreign policy establishment are willing to spell out the broader issues of power politics. A much-discussed recent report for the Council on Foreign Relations argued that decades of fort by America to “integrate China into the liberal international order” had in fect backfired because China’s power now threatened US “primacy in Asia”. Robert Blackwill and Ashley Tellis, the report’s authors and two of America’s most prominent Asia-watchers, argue for various measures to push back, including “new prerential trading arrangements among US friends and allies?.?.?.?through instruments that consciously exclude China”. That is a description of the TPP.奥巴马仍然把争论框定在经济范畴内。但是美国外交政策当局的其他人很乐意谈及更广泛的权力政治问题。美国外交关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)最近一份广受讨论的报告认为，过去几十年美国“将中国融入自由国际秩序”的努力实际上适得其反，因为中国势力如今威胁到美国“在亚洲的主导地位”。该报告的作者罗伯特?布莱克威尔(Robert Blackwill)和阿什利?泰利斯(Ashley Tellis)是美国两名最著名的亚洲观察人士。他们认为美国应该采取多种措施反击，包括“通过有意识地将中国排除在外的手段……在美国的朋友和盟国之间建立新的特惠贸易安排”。这就是在描述TPP。

　　This strategic motivation is even more powerful for Japan, which is embroiled in bitter territorial and diplomatic disputes with China. Initially, Tokyo steered clear of the TPP negotiations to avoid upsetting powerful domestic constituencies. But Mr Abe’s fear of the rise of China has trumped his fear of Japanese farmers. He has come to see the TPP as crucial to strengthening the US-Japan alliance and its role in Asia. In a recent speech to the US Congress, the Japanese leader argued that the agreement was ultimately about “democracy and freedom”, adding:“Its strategic value is awesome.”对于与中国卷入激烈的领土和外交争端的日本来说，这种战略动机甚至更强。起初，东京方面回避TPP谈判以避免惹恼强大的国内选民。但是，安倍对中国崛起的恐惧超过了对日本农民的畏惧。他开始把TPP视为加强美日联盟以及巩固日本在亚洲地位的关键。最近在美国国会发表演讲时，这位日本领导人指出，该协定从根本上是关于“民主和自由”，并补充称：“其战略价值是超乎寻常的。”

　　The notes of anxiety in these pleas by the US and Japanese leaders rlects the fact that both Washington and Tokyo fear China is on the march in Asia. While the direct territorial dispute between Japan and China has cooled down a little, Chinese claims in the South China Sea are being pushed with renewed energy through controversial “land reclamation” projects, with clear military implications. On the economic front, America’s recent failure to prevent important allies from joining a China-sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank turned into a humiliation for the US. It now fears that the AIIB could become the instrument for promoting China’s policy of “one belt, one road” — the fort to build new infrastructure networks across the Asia- Pacific region, which centres on China.美国和日本领导人所作辩解中的焦虑情绪，反映了美方和日方均担心中国在亚洲崛起的事实。尽管中日之间直接的领土争端略微降温，但中国在南中国海的领土主张，已经通过备受争议而带有明显军事意味的“填海造岛”工程而注入了新的动力。在经济方面，美国最近未能阻止其重要盟友加入中国发起的亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB，简称亚投行)，此事令美国蒙羞。如今美国担心亚投行将成为中国推动其“一带一路”政策的工具，而该政策是为了在以中国为中心的亚太地区打造全新基础设施网。

　　Faced with these setbacks, the Obama administration is now determined to secure the TPP as a visible sign of US influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The president has made a “rebalance” to Asia one of his signature initiatives in foreign policy. His senior officials now accept that the TPP has become critical to signalling that the rebalance is alive and well.面对这些挫折，眼下奥巴马当局决心要达成TPP，作为美国在亚太地区影响力的明显标志。奥巴马已经把向亚洲“重新平衡”作为其外交政策的一项标志性举措。其高级官员如今认为，对于表明这种重新平衡策略仍然存在并运行良好，TPP至关重要。

　　However, the TPP cannot really meet the strategic hopes that are now pinned on it. First, it is still far from clear that the 12 countries involved will be able both to strike a deal and secure approval at home. Mr Obama’s struggles with Congress give due warning.然而，TPP无法真正满足其如今被赋予的战略希望。首先，TPP涉及的12个谈判国能否达成协定并在各国国内获得通过，仍远远不明朗。奥巴马与国会的纠缠已经发出了充分的警告。

　　More important, it is too late to prevent China becoming the core of the Asian economy — with all the political and strategic gains that implies. China更重要的是，现在阻止中国成为亚洲经济的核心为时已晚——考虑到其中蕴含的所有政治和战略利益。中国已经成为TPP谈判国中多数重要国家(包括日本、新加坡和澳大利亚)最大的贸易伙伴，而且中国还是美国本身的第二大贸易伙伴。中国还是韩国和印度最大的贸易伙伴，这两个亚洲主要经济体甚至不是TPP谈判方。的确，上周在奥巴马竭力确保TPP在国会通过时，印度总理纳伦德拉?莫迪(Narendra Modi)正在中国签署总值220亿美元的商业协议。

　　is already the biggest trading partner莫迪渴望与中国做生意，并不意味着印度对中国崛起完全释怀。正如美国在该地区的多数友国和盟友一样，印度正怂恿美国加强在亚洲的军事存在。但是，尽管美国仍然是亚太地区占主导地位的军事强国，但中国如今是该地区实力超群的经济强国。一个TPP协定不足以、也来不及改变这一点了。

　　of most of the important nations in the TPP negotiations — including Japan, Singapore and Australia — and it is the second-biggest partner of the US itself. China is also the biggest trade partner of South Korea and India — two leading Asian economies that are not even译者/马柯斯

　　parties to the TPP negotiations. Indeed last week, as Mr Obama was struggling to keep the TPP alive in Congress, Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, was in China, signing $22bn of business deals.

　　Mr Modi’s eagerness to do business with China does not mean that India is completely at ease with the country’s rise. Like most of America’s friends and allies in the region, India is encouraging the US to step up its military presence in Asia. But while the US is still the dominant military power in the Asia-Pacific region, China is now the pre-eminent economic power. A TPP deal would do too little, too late to change that.

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