7位专家谈他们对中国经济的忧虑

　　7 experts on what worries them about China

　　Chinese GDP growth slowed to 7.7% last year, hitting its lowest level since 1999.

　　Some of the biggest issues we&aposre seeing in the headlines these days are concerns over shadow banking, rising local government debt, and trust daults.

　　The credit crunch China experienced last year, and the worry that deleveraging could trigger a hard landing is also getting a lot of attention.

　　We asked six China experts the same question. What worries you the most about China? Here are their responses:

　　Alaistair Chan, Moody&aposs: "The central bank’s campaign to cut risky lending practices and over-leverage in the financial sector via monetary tightening is a big concern. The PBoC seems to have learned from the June 2013 Shibor scare, but it is still unclear how monetary tightening against a backdrop of potential daults in corporate bonds this year will unfold."

　　David Cui, Bank of America: "Debt growth and corporate sector solvency issue."

　　Patrick Chovanec, Silvercrest Asset Management: "I&aposm worried that Chinese leaders actually believe it when they say everything is under control. The clock is fast running out on China&aposs tactic of using runaway credit to fuel investment-led growth.

　　"At best China faces a growth squeeze from a mounting burden of bad debt, at worse that bad debt will blow up in its face. Either way, China faces a wrenching economic adjustment. If China&aposs leaders recognize not just the direction but also the urgency of change, they have some hope of getting to the other side. If they kid themselves into complacency, they are courting disaster."

　　George Magnus, Formerly UBS: "Among many things that worry me, the most urgent issue is if, how and under what circumstances China will tame credit creation and put a troublesome genie back in the bottle. We&aposve had a few trust loan daults that haven&apost caused a big stir yet, but there have been a couple of depositor bail outs that don&apost point to a determined attempt to curb the excess yet.

　　"There&aposs a tension between the PBoC and the China Banking regulatory Commission over shadow banking restraint. I expect credit to slow and to lead to slower growth. I worry that the authorities will try to soft pedal this, leading to a bigger denouement later."

　　Jim Rogers, Rogers Holdings: "The high levels of debt in some areas. Some of the provinces and companies have built up debt in recent years during the recovery, since there has been so very much artificial liquidity all over the world. All the money printing in the developed world is causing distortions everywhere including China."

　　Tom Orlik, Bloomberg: "The biggest worry about China this year is the state of the financial system. Massive credit growth has lt banks overexposed, and as the economy slows the cracks are starting to show."

　　Bill Bishop, Sinocism: "A. Environmental crises: air, water, soil, food. There are and will continue to be huge opportunities for investors and companies in cleaning up the mess, but the human toll is massive and will get worse bore it gets better. It could lead to significant unrest but more likely will lead to cancer epidemics and emigration by those who can afford to;

　　B. Corruption. Xi&aposs crackdown on official corruption is serious and having an fect. Of course there are political reasons and scores to settle, but the crackdown has changed behavior. It has not however addressed the corruption that is pervasive in Chinese society, and it is hard though to see how that can be changed materially in the midst of increasing restriction on public discourse and transparency;

　　C. Ideological retrenchment. No, Xi is not a "neo-Maoist", but he is a pragmatic Marxist and there is a broader tightening of discourse and more aggressive rejection of "Western" values and Neo-liberalism than we have seen in a while. But most people here do not believe in Marxism and a Marxist morality campaign will not work. So the real glue is nationalism, and that has only grown stronger, intentionally, over the years;

　　D. Growing anti-foreign, and especially anti-American, sentiment as more and more people are told, and start to believe, that the West is trying to keep China down and prevent its rejuvenation. Tensions from an economic slowdown, economic rorm/restructuring and/or the corruption crackdown and its political re-ordering could lead to even more external friction than would normally be expected with a rising power. Geoff Dyer&aposs new book "The Contest of the Century: The New Era of Competition with China" is worth reading."

　　去年中国的GDP增长下降到7.7%，是1999年以来最低的水平。

　　近来我们在新闻标题中看到的最大问题包括对影子银行、不断上升的地方政府债务以及信托基金违约的担忧。

　　同时，中国去年经历的信贷紧缩以及担心去杠杆化会引发经济硬着陆越来越引起人们的大量关注。

　　我们向六位中国问题专家提出了同一个问题：最担心中国什么?以下是他们的答复。

　　穆迪公司阿来斯蒂尔·钱(Alaistair Chan)：“中央银行通过货币紧缩降低金融行业风险信贷以及过度杠杆化的行动非常令人担忧。中国人民银行似乎已经汲取了2013年上海银行间同业拆放利率恐慌的教训，但尚不清楚在公司债券方面针对潜在违约的货币紧缩政策将如何展开。”

　　美洲银行的戴维·崔(David Cui)：“债务增长以及企业部门的偿付能力问题。”

　　Silvercrest资产管理公司帕特里克·乔维尼克(Patrick Chovanec)。“我担心中国领导人在说一切都在掌控下时，他们实际上真的相信这一点。中国利用失控的信贷维持投资引导型经济增长，这种策略正在迅速走向末日。”

　　“最好的情况是，中国面临增长因沉重债务负担引起的经济增长紧缩，更遭的情况则是，坏债将让中国直接栽跟头。无论是哪种方式，中国将面临痛苦的经济调整。如果中国领导人不但明白改革的方向，而且认识到改革的紧迫性，他们还有可能度过难关。如果幼稚地陷入沾沾自喜，将招致灾难。

　　UBS的乔治·马格努斯(George Magnus)：“在令我担心的许多事情当中，最为紧迫的是中国是否会并在什么样的条件下驯服信贷创造，将制造麻烦的妖魔重新放回瓶子里。我们已经看到了一些信托贷款违约事件，但没有造成很大轰动，不过，已经有了两三件存款人救助的案例，但这些案例并还未显示出消除过分信贷的坚定努力。”

　　“在约束影子银行问题上，中国人民银行和中国银行业监督管理委员会关系紧张。我预计信贷会放缓，导致经济增长放缓。我担心政府试图减缓这一措施，导致后来形成更严重的结果。”

　　罗杰斯控股(Rogers Holdings)吉米·罗杰斯：“有些地区存在的高债务问题。在最近几年的经济恢复期间，因为整个世界范围内存在非常高的人为流动性，一些省市和公司债务水平大幅提高。发达国家印发的所有货币在包括中国在内所有国家里制造了扭曲。”

　　彭博社汤姆·奥立克(Tom Orlik)：“有关中国今年最大的担心是金融体系的状况。巨大规模的信贷增长将银行过度地暴露在风险之下，随着经济放缓，裂痕已经开始显现。”

　　Sinocism的利明璋：“第一，环境危机：空气、水、土壤。对投资人和企业来说，清理这些污染存在，而且将继续存在巨大的机会，但是污染将造成巨大的人身伤亡，在彻底得到扭转之前，这种情况会变得更糟。环境危机可能引起大的动乱，但更大的可能是造成多种癌症蔓延，以及具有经济能力人士的移民。”

　　第二，腐败问题。习近平打击官员腐败的行动是严肃而有成效的。当然，打击腐败存在多种政治理由，也能得到政治得分，但是打击活动已经改变了行为。不过，并没有解决在中国社会普遍存在的腐败问题。在对公共话题以及透明性限制不断增加的环境下，很难看到实质性的变化。

　　第三，思想紧缩。习绝对不是“新派毛分子”，但他是位实用的马克思主义者。最近以来出现大范围的紧缩政治话语，以及对“西方”价值和新自由主义激励的排斥，超过了我们以前的观察。但是，这里的绝大多数人并不相信马克思主义，马克思主义道德运动将不起作用。因此，真正的粘合剂是民族主义，近年来，民族主义被人为得到增强。

　　第四，随着越来越多地人被告知并且相信，西方正在试图打压中国，阻止中国复兴，反外情绪，尤其是反美情绪得到不断增强。经济增长放缓、经济改革/重组、反腐和政治秩序重构引起的紧张关系将导致更多的外部摩擦，超过了一般情况下新兴大国的预期。杰夫·戴尔的新书《世纪竞赛：与中国竞争的新时代》值得一读。

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