中国GDP目标暗示政策走向

　　China sets 7.5 per cent growth target

　　China is targeting economic growth of 7.5 per cent this year, a dovish goal that could force the government to stimulate the economy in the coming months as growth ebbs toward the lower end of the target.中国将今年的经济增长目标定在7.5%。随着实际经济增速向着这一“底线”下滑，这一目标可能将促使政府在未来几月内刺激经济。

　　The target, announced by Premier Li Keqiang at the start of China’s annual meeting of the National People’s Congress – the country’s faux parliament – is identical to that set in the past two years.中国总理李克强在中国一年一度的全国人民代表大会开幕时公布了这一目标，它与前两年的目标相同。全国人大在中国相当于议会，但缺乏实权。

　　Many analysts and investors had predicted that Beijing might lower its target or set a broader range this year in a bid to push through rorms even at a short-term economic cost.许多分析人士和投资者之前曾预计，中国政府可能将降低增长目标或设定较宽的增长区间，用短期的经济代价换来改革的推进。

　　For much of the past decade, China’s growth target was fectively meaningless, with the gross domestic product expanding by an average of 10 per cent while the target called for no more than 8 per cent.过去十年的大部分时间里，中国的增长目标缺乏实际意义，因为国内生产总值年均增长10%，而目标一直没有超过8%。

　　However, with the maturing economy slowing, the target is becoming a more important signal of policy intentions. In the final quarter of 2013, GDP expanded 7.7 per cent year on year, and survey data have pointed to a further slowdown in the first quarter of 2014, leaving the government little margin for error if it is to hit its growth target.但随着中国经济在成熟中放缓，增长目标对政策意图的指示意义越发重要。2013年四季度GDP同比增长7.7%，调查数据表明2014年一季度经济增长正在进一步放缓，如果政府希望达到预期的增长目标，出错的余地将非常有限。

　　Mr Li, in his work report to the parliament, said it would not be easy to meet but expressed confidence in doing so.李克强在《政府工作报告》中表示目标不易达到，但他表示有信心。

　　“We are at a critical juncture where our path upward is particularly steep,” he said, according to the text of his report. “At the same time it should be noted that China has the foundation and conditions for maintaining a medium-high rate of growth for some time to come.”“到了爬坡过坎的紧要关口，”李克强的报告文字版中写道，“同时要看到……今后一个时期保持经济中高速增长有基础也有条件。”

　　It was Mr Li’s maiden annual work report to parliament, coming at the end of his and President Xi Jinping’s first year in office as the country’s new leadership duo. In 2013 when Chinese money market rates climbed towards double-digits analysts argued that the duo were ready to accept a slowdown in growth in return for cleaning up the high levels of private and public debt accumulated over the past five years.这是李克强上任后的第一份政府工作报告，他与国家主席习近平组成的中国新领导层二人组的执政第一年也宣告结束。2013年，当中国货币市场利率攀升至双位数时，分析人士认为他们准备接受经济增速放缓，以清理过去五年累积下来的高额公私债务。

　　But money market rates have dropped sharply in recent weeks, a sign the central bank has already presided over an easing of policy to help keep growth on track.但货币市场利率近几周大幅下跌，表明央行已经放宽政策，帮助增长回到正轨。

　　China’s other important economic targets for 2014 matched those of 2013.中国2014年的其他重要经济目标与2013年相同。

　　Once again, the government said it was aiming for an average inflation rate of 3.5 per cent and 13 per cent growth in the broad M2 gauge of money.与去年一样，政府表示平均通胀目标设在3.5%，M2广义货币增速目标设在13%。

　　Beijing did give itself a modicum of wiggle room for its growth target, phrasing it as “about” 7.5 per cent, just as in 2013. In February Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s central bank governor had said that the economy would grow between 7 and 8 per cent this year.中国政府确实给增长目标提供了一点浮动空间，在措辞上使用了7.5%“左右”，数字与2013年相同。今年2月份，中国央行行长周小川表示，今年经济增长率将在7%至8%之间。

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