China’s economic growth is being overstated by 1 to 2 percentage points due to a glitch in the way it is calculated, according to estimates by Capital Economics. 据凯投宏观(Capital Economics)估计，由于计算方法上的一个问题，中国当前经济增长速度被高估了一到两个百分点。

　　If correct, this would mean the world’s second-largest economy only grew by 5-6 per cent in the 12 months to the first quarter of 2015, rather than the 7 per cent figure announced by Beijing. 如果这种说法是正确的，就意味着在截至2015年第一季度的12个月里，全球第二大经济体的增长速度只有5%到6%，而不是中国政府公布的7%。

　　China’s official gross domestic product data have long attracted widespread scorn, with many commentators arguing the suspiciously smooth numbers are manipulated for political reasons. 长期以来，中国官方公布的国内生产总值(GDP)数据受到广泛质疑。许多评论人士声称，这一平滑得令人生疑的数据因政治原因而受到了操纵。

　　However, the Capital Economics analysis differs in that it is suggesting an error arises from a technical issue with how economic growth is calculated, rather than any deliberate attempt to mislead. 不过，与上述说法不同的是，凯投宏观的分析表明，导致中国GDP数据存在误差的原因，是计算方法上的技术问题，而不是出于任何故意的误导企图。

　　Moreover, if the analysis is correct, it suggests that a swath of other emerging market countries, including India, could also be inadvertently overstating their economic growth numbers. 此外，如果这一分析是正确的，它意味着包括印度在内的一系列其他新兴市场国家，也可能在无意间高估了经济增长数据。

　　The issue centres on the so-called “GDP dlator”, the inflation measure used to convert estimates of nominal GDP into real, inflation-adjusted terms. 这个问题的核心，是所谓“GDP平减指数”(GDP dlator)。该指数是用来衡量通胀的指标，用于将对名义GDP的估计，转换为经通胀调整后的实际GDP数据。

　　The dlator is a broader measure than indicators such as consumer or producer price inflation and is therore often considered a more usul gauge of overall price pressures in an economy. It is the prerred inflation measure of the US Federal Reserve. 平减指数是一个比消费者价格指数(CPI)和生产者价格指数(PPI)覆盖范围更广的指标。出于这个原因，该指数往往被视为衡量经济中总体价格压力的更有用的指标。该指标是美联储(Fed)优先采用的通胀指标。

　　Since GDP is a measure of domestic output, arguably this dlator should only rlect the prices of domestically produced goods and services. 由于GDP是衡量国内产出的指标，理论上其平减指数只应该反映国内生产的商品和服务的价格水平。

　　In practice, this means netting out the price of imports in the calculation of the GDP dlator, a routine practice in countries with “robust statistical systems”, as Chang Liu, China economist at Capital Economics, puts it. 在实际操作上，这意味着在计算GDP平减指数的过程中，应将进口商品的价格排除在外。这在拥有“健全统计体系”——按照凯投宏观中国经济学家刘畅的说法——的国家是一种例行做法。

　　For much of the time, a failure to do this might not matter too much. However, at times when import price inflation varies markedly from domestic inflation, such as when global commodity prices are rising or falling rapidly, it matters more. 很多情况下，不这么做可能不会产生太大影响。然而，在进口价格通胀的变化与国内商品通胀的变化大不相同时——比如在全球大宗商品价格迅速上涨或下跌时，不扣除进口价格的变化就会产生较大影响。

　　As the chart shows, in 2007 when commodity prices spiked, the US consumer price index rose much more than the GDP dlator, widening the “inflation gap”, or the difference between the two measures. 2007年当大宗商品价格大幅升高时，美国CPI上升幅度大大高于GDP平减指数，从而扩大了“通胀率差距”，即两种指标之差。

　　More recently, as commodity prices have fallen, the US inflation gap has turned negative. A similar pattern has occurred in Japan, the UK and Germany, Capital Economics says. 更近一些时候，随着大宗商品价格下跌，美国的通胀率差距转为负值。凯投宏观表示，日本、英国和德国也出现了类似的现象。

　　However, because China does not net off shifts in import prices when calculating the dlator for most sectors of its economy, its dlator tracks producer price inflation much more closely. 但是，由于中国在计算多数经济领域的平减指数时没有扣除进口价格的变化，其平减指数更紧跟PPI。

　　As a result, Mr Liu says: “China’s GDP dlator is not an accurate measure of changes in domestic output prices. It exaggerates inflation when import prices are rising, and understates it when import prices fall”. 刘畅说：“(因此)中国的GDP平减指数就不能精确衡量国内产出价格的变化。当进口价格上涨时，它夸大了通货膨胀，而当进口价格下跌时，它又低估了通货膨胀。”

　　In the first quarter of the year, China’s dlator turned negative for the second time since 2000, coming in at -1.1 per cent. In comparison, consumer price inflation was +1.2 per cent. This means its inflation gap has jumped to 2.3 percentage points, even as it has fallen sharply in the likes of the US, as the chart shows. 在今年第一季度，??中国的平减指数下降到-1.1%，这是自2000年后第二次转负。相比之下，CPI为+1.2%。这意味着中国的通胀率差距已扩大到2.3个百分点，即使美国等国的通胀率差距已出现大幅下降，如图中所示。

　　If the dlator is, as a result, understated, then real GDP growth is overstated by the same amount. 因此，如果平减指数被低估，那么实际GDP增长率就被夸大了同等幅度。

　　“A reasonable guess might be that true inflation was 1-2 percentage points higher than the dlator shows. In that case, real GDP growth in Q1 would have been 5-6 per cent [rather than 7 per cent],” said Mr Liu, who added that the lower rate was closer to Capital Economics’ own estimate, based on activity data, of 4.9 per cent. 刘畅说：“一个合理猜测是真实的通胀水平比平减指数显示的要高1到2个百分点。在这种情况下，一季度实际GDP增长率应为5%到6%，而不是7%。”他还说这个较低的数值更接近于凯投宏观基于活动数据估算得出的4.0%。

　　A figure of 5-6 per cent would also be closer to the estimates of several other forecasters, with Citibank suggesting the true figure was “below 6 per cent”, the Conference Board’s China Center 4 per cent and Lombard Street Research just 3.8 per cent. 5%到6%的数字也更接近于其他机构的估计，花旗银行(Citibank)估计真实的增长率数据“低于6%”，世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)中国中心估计为4%，朗伯德街研究(Lombard Street Research)的预测仅为3.8%。

　　Mr Liu stresses that Capital Economics is not suggesting China’s National Bureau of Statistics is deliberately skewing the dlator in order to exaggerate reported economic growth. Instead, the problem stems from limitations in its data collection. 刘畅强调，凯投宏观并不是暗示中国国家统计局有意歪曲平减指数以夸大经济增长数据。相反，问题源于国家统计局在数据收集方面的局限性。

　　As such, if the analysis holds water, then the problem could be prevalent across a wide range of emerging markets, suggesting EM growth is routinely understated during periods of commodity price strength and overstated when, as now, raw material prices are weak. 因此，如果上述分析成立，那么众多新兴市场可能普遍存在这一问题，这意味着新兴市场的增长通常在大宗商品价格走强时被低估，在原材料价格疲软时又被高估，而目前正属于后一种情况。

　　“Statistics agencies in many countries use the same approach as China because they lack the ability or capacity to collect the data needed to track the prices of inputs as well as final outputs,” says Mr Liu. 刘畅说：“许多国家的统计机构采用了与中国一样的方法，因为它们缺乏收集追踪投入价格以及最终产出价格所需数据的能力。”

　　In particular, he highlights India as another country prone to the same issue. 他特别强调印度是另一个容易出现这一问题的国家。

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