8.22 AA(四)

　　9. 桐聆; wy007 daibing126 3次

　　感谢kkjj2222提供原题

　　The following is part of a business plan created by the management of the Megamart grocery store.

　　“Our total sales have increased this year by 20 percent since we added a pharmacy section to our grocery store. Clearly, the customer’s main concern is the convenience afforded by one-stop shopping. The surest way to increase our profits over the next couple of years, therore, is to add a clothing department along with an automotive supplies and repair shop. We should also plan to continue adding new departments and services, such as a restaurant and a garden shop, in subsequent years. Being the only store in the area that offers such a range of services will give us a competitive advantage over other local stores.” (pool第44题)

　　提纲：

　　1. Other reason that might have caused the increase

　　2. Stores specializing in one service might be able to offer things at a lower price, thus the megamart gained no advantage.

　　1. First of all, the argument suffers from the fallacy of “ after this, therore because of this”

　　2. Granting that the increase in total sales was due to the addition of the pharmacy section, this fact alone is insufficient to support the claim that adding more departments will increase sales even further.

　　1. 总体销售额增加20%利润不一定也会相应增加

　　2. 销售额的增加不一定是由于增加了这个部门造成的

　　3. 以后是否还会有如此效果不一定。因为可能已经有企业提供更专业更优质的商品和服务。

　　1. 没有建立因果。sequence不能证明因果。不知道收入来自哪个section. 很可能是有其他的原因：很可能是pharmacy没有利润。利润来自其他的部分。比如食品等，质量提高，或者经济情况好，人们有更多的demand。

　　2. 销售额增加不一定是profit增加。

　　3. 错误类比：就算加入了pharmacy引起了收入提高，也不能说增加的clothing和其他也会引起收入。很可能人们不是因为convenience，而是对medicine的需要。很可能其他的，人们更愿意到special shops。

　　wide range of services VS increase profits over the couple of years 1.pharmacy section ≠ 20% total sales increased

　　2.only from the fact that 20% sales increased ≠ a commen realtionship of all customers

　　3.pharmacy section ≠ clothing dept./automotive supplies/repairshop

　　4.pharmacy secion + wide range of services costs high ≠ benits and profits increase

　　5.the Pharmacy section cannot be considered as a trend of the future cusomers, it is possible that in subsequent years, people are more concerned with the special services of grocery store.

　　--from 5月JJ

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