Americans Optimistic About Their Own 2013 Prospects, But Not Yours

　　How do you really feel?

　　A common head-scratcher in gauging the economy&aposs course is the divergence between what people say they expect for the broader economy and how they act. Consumer confidence might tank, for instance, but those downbeat consumers don&apost necessarily pull back on their own spending. Sometimes people simply assume others will respond more negatively than they will.

　　Gallup highlights the divide in a survey released today about the 2013 outlook. Just one in three Americans believes 2013 will be &aposa year of economic prosperity&apos and fewer than one in four believes it will be a year of international peace. But a whopping 69% of Americans are personally optimistic about &aposabout how you and your family will do&apos in 2013. Just 27% are pessimistic. (The surveys were conducted Dec. 14-17, bore the fiscal cliff fully morphed into a dispiriting melodrama.)

　　Many folks simply believe -- sometimes correctly -- that the problems of the nation or the world won&apost necessarily hurt them directly. Or maybe &aposprosperity&apos is too strong of a word to gauge their thinking with the economy still recovering slowly. The divergence has carried into other surveys, and it can cut both ways. Americans in recent years have been more optimistic about the value of their own homes than their neighbors&apos homes, and we all know how that turned out.

　　Either way, the latest Gallup data highlights what drives the economic views that many people report: politics. Among people who identify as &aposliberal,&apos a whopping 89% say they&aposre optimistic about how they&aposll do in 2013. Among &aposconservative&apos Americans, just 51%. (Moderates are at 78%.)

　　Young people tend to be far more optimistic than older people. But neither income nor education level mattered much in gauging who was optimistic vs. pessimistic.

　　【中文对照翻译】

　　民调：2013年美国人只对自身境况乐观

　　你真正的感觉是什么?

　　在判断美国经济发展趋势的时候，一个令人挠头的事情是，人们口中所说他们对美国宏观经济的预期，与他们实际的行动对不上号。举例来说，消费者信心虽然可能会下降，但那些情绪悲观的消费者却未必会压缩自己的支出。有时候人们只是以为，其他受访者会做出比他们自己更为负面的回答。

　　盖洛普公司(Gallup)周四公布的一项关于2013年经济前景的民意调查结果彰显了受访者言行不一的现象。只有三分之一的美国受访者认为，2013年将是一个“经济繁荣之年”;只有不足四分之一的受访者认为，2013将是一个国际和平之年。但却有高达69%的美国受访者表示，对于2013年“你和你家人的境况将会如何”，他们个人持乐观态度。只有27%的受访者持悲观态度。(此次民意调查于去年12月14-17日期间进行，当时美国两党围绕财政悬崖问题的争斗还未完全演变为一出令人沮丧的情节剧。)

　　许多受访者只是认为，美国的问题或者世界的问题未必会直接伤害到他们自己(有时这种看法是正确的)。也有可能是，由于美国经济的复苏步伐依然缓慢，美国受访者认为他们心目中经济的乐观程度还不足以用“繁荣” 一词来描述。受访者这种心口不一的情况也反映在其他民意调查中，这种现象有利也有弊。近年来，美国人对自家房屋价值的看法一直比他们对邻家房屋价值的看法更为乐观，我们都知道这最终导致了什么结果。

　　不管怎么说，从最新公布的盖洛普民意调查数据可以明显看出，政治因素影响了许多人对经济的看法。在认为自己是“自由派”的受访者中，有高达89%的人说他们对自己在2013年将如何行事持乐观看法。而在认为自己是“保守派”的美国人中，仅有51%的人说他们持乐观看法。(78%的中间派人士持乐观看法。)

　　年轻人的乐观程度比中老年人高得多。但一个人的收入或教育水平对他究竟持乐观还是悲观看法并无太大影响。

【双语阅读】民调：2013年美国人只对自身境况乐观 中文翻译部分

　　Americans Optimistic About Their Own 2013 Prospects, But Not Yours

　　How do you really feel?

　　A common head-scratcher in gauging the economy&aposs course is the divergence between what people say they expect for the broader economy and how they act. Consumer confidence might tank, for instance, but those downbeat consumers don&apost necessarily pull back on their own spending. Sometimes people simply assume others will respond more negatively than they will.

　　Gallup highlights the divide in a survey released today about the 2013 outlook. Just one in three Americans believes 2013 will be &aposa year of economic prosperity&apos and fewer than one in four believes it will be a year of international peace. But a whopping 69% of Americans are personally optimistic about &aposabout how you and your family will do&apos in 2013. Just 27% are pessimistic. (The surveys were conducted Dec. 14-17, bore the fiscal cliff fully morphed into a dispiriting melodrama.)

　　Many folks simply believe -- sometimes correctly -- that the problems of the nation or the world won&apost necessarily hurt them directly. Or maybe &aposprosperity&apos is too strong of a word to gauge their thinking with the economy still recovering slowly. The divergence has carried into other surveys, and it can cut both ways. Americans in recent years have been more optimistic about the value of their own homes than their neighbors&apos homes, and we all know how that turned out.

　　Either way, the latest Gallup data highlights what drives the economic views that many people report: politics. Among people who identify as &aposliberal,&apos a whopping 89% say they&aposre optimistic about how they&aposll do in 2013. Among &aposconservative&apos Americans, just 51%. (Moderates are at 78%.)

　　Young people tend to be far more optimistic than older people. But neither income nor education level mattered much in gauging who was optimistic vs. pessimistic.

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