7.题库9

　　The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine.

　　“On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only 25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumer.”

　　财经杂志的意见栏(opinion column)：

　　一般而言，中年消费者的零售消费额的39%用于(devote)专卖店的商品何服务。而在年轻一些的消费者中这一比例仅有25%。由于中年消费者的数量在下一10年中将大幅增长，专卖店可以预期他们的销售额会有大幅增长。进一步，为利用这一趋势，这些店应该开始将一些吸引年轻消费者的商品替换为吸引中年消费者的商品。

　　According to the argument above, the author recommends that the department stores should replace some of the products intended to attract the younger consumer with product intended to middle-age consumers, and the purpose is to attract the younger consumers whom will devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services when they are middle-aged.

　　This argument is unconvincing for the following logical fallacy.

　　A.Replace the products to attract the younger consumers will not increase the percentage of their retail expenditure to department store products and services when they are middle-aged. Because the percentage of retail expenditure to department store products and services that middle-age consumers devote is fixed, it will not change even the department stores attract the middle-age consumers since they were the young consumers.

　　B.The department stores should place their products in proportion to the percentage of retail expenditure to department store products and services that the middle-age and the young consumers devote.

　　Gratuitious Assumption--"the total amount of money middle-aged consumers spend is similar to the total amount of money younger customers spend" If it were the case that younger consumers spend much more money in total then it could be more important for stores to focus on their business.

　　Either Or Choice--the author assumes that stocking products to attract more middle-aged consumers and stocking products to attract younger consumers are mutually exclusive alternatives. Perhaps it is possible to increase the store&aposs appeal to older consumers without compromising its appeal to younger crowds.

　　Insufficient Sample--the author concludes that all middle aged people will behave as present-day middle aged people do, but perhaps the determination of where to shop is based upon the customer&aposs generation rather than the customer&aposs age. If that were the case then when today&aposs younger consumers become middle-aged consumers they will continue to shop in stores other than department stores.

　　A. Lacking any information concerning respectively the actual amount of retail ecpenditure of both the middle-aged consumer group and the younger consumers, we can hardly determine whether the increase in middle-aged consumers will certainly bring more sales to department stores.

　　B. Furthermore, the arguer fails to consider the fact that different department stores in different locations may have consumers of different age groups.

　　C. Finally, the arguer ignores the possible negative impact on sales brought about by the decrease in the number of young consumers as a resuly of the recommended invertory adjustment.

　　版本一，关于一个grocery retail stores的redesign proposal.

　　前提：这个grocery store的主要客户是wealthy的;近几年sales一直都很高，但profit却下降。于是提议：

　　1. lay off 10 employees at each store

　　2. eliminate expensive product display and free samples

　　3. partnership with a cafe, 在grocery 店里开cafe, because a recent survey shows 他们两家have similar customers。

　　然后宣称sales/profit会提高。

　　版本二，以下内容为Greentree Grocery Strore 的Redesign plan

　　Greentree的管理者最近很头疼，虽然销售量上去了但是利润持续下降，Greentree吸引许多high-class的消费者的主要是他expensive的高档产品和expert service. 但是这个连锁店的老板觉得必须cut cost所以决定 lay off 10 employees for each store. 同时 according to a recent survey 另外一家咖啡连锁吸引的顾客看起来和他家很match，于是老板决定patener with这个cafer chain, create a cafe 台 in each shop, 觉得这样可以吸引很多新顾客，从而提高销量。

　　AA:是一个gym的manager说有机食品的;说一个survey表明大家对吃的健康有兴趣.吃有机食品是"吃的健康"的一种.这个地区目前还没有有机食品商店,我们要在其他厂商(大概是这个意思,national chain之类的)进来之前建立这些有机食品商店.然后说gym的利润不佳有一年了,此举可以增加利润.

　　版本一，mining technology去年需求下降导致B 公司利润和股票下降。最近新能源科技表现很好，B 公司应该转向新能源科技来提高利润和股价

　　版本二， Last year全国的mining technology都状态低迷，而做Renewable energy的公司有不少都挺成功(列举了一些能源)，因此Blastcom公司认为通过转变策略，devoting research to renewable engergy来盈利并升高公司股价是一定会成功.

　　版本三， 是说去年能源需求下降，但有一些公司开发新能源利润和股票价格都上升了，所以如果B公司也开发新能源，一定会保证profits和share prices 在未来不受任何decline的影响

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