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　　一个汽车公司在JULY 与FEB 两个月做广告卖汽车一个是有关豪华汽车的一个月是不贵的汽车的然后得出结论后面逻辑错误百出很好写。

　　(考古) V1: AUTOMOBILE——6月的销售策略是陈列LUXURY MODEL,打LUXURY MODEL的广告，然后COMBINED SALES剧烈上涨。2月陈列MORE INEXPENSIVE MODEL，打INEXPENSIVE MODEL的广告，OVERALL SALES下降。

　　经历的结论：应该继续6月的策略，因为只要顾客踏入AUTO LOT然后看到L MODEL就会被吸引然后购买。

　　V2 :6月份的时候公司进行了advertising on parking lots and show room of luxury automotibles. And the sales increased significantly for both luxury and inexpensive models. 这证明这种投放广告的方式是有效的, 可以同时带来高级汽车(luxury)和普通汽车(inexpensive) 的销售增加. However, in Feburary, 同样针对inexpensive models的广告活动,没有带来sales的增长. 因此,公司应该在以后的广告活动中put the luxury models in front并center at luxury modles. 这样,现行可以maximize profits.

　　V3一个公司说六月份他们把luxury automobile model在当地报纸上做广告，并且放在商店的显著位置，因此销售额创了历史新高，二月他们把inexpensive model做广告，放在显著位置，但是销售额下来了，因此决定全年都应该把luxury automobile model在当地报纸上做广告，并且放在商店的显著位置，这样可以maxmize profits & attract customers：

　　3次

　　18 43

　　The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.

　　“There is a common misconception that university hospitals are better than community or private hospitals. This notion is unfounded, however: the university hospitals in our region employ 15 percent fewer doctors, have a 20 percent lower success rate in treating patients, make far less overall profit, and pay their medical staff considerably less than do private hospitals. Furthermore, many doctors at university hospitals typically divide their time among teaching, conducting research, and treating patients. From this it seems clear that the quality of care at university hospitals is lower than that at other kinds of hospitals.”

　　报纸的健康板块上的文章：

　　有一种普遍的错误观念认为大学医院比社区或私人医院更好。这个想法是无根据的，我们地区的大学医院较之私人医院，少雇15%的医生，对患者的治愈率要低20%，总体利润要小得多，给一户员工的待遇比私人医院低很多。而且，很多大学医院的医生将他们的时间分为教学，直到研究和看病几部分。从此可明显看出大学医院的服务质量比其他医院低。

　　提纲：

　　1， 从一个医院的情况就推广到整个太草率

　　2， 治愈率低可能是因为接受的患者得的病都比较罕见等原因造成的

　　3， 工资低，总体利润低，时间分配给教学都不能一定说明质量差。可能其他福利好，接受的病人少，教学研究有助于进步

　　1. 首先，医生的人数与质量之间没有必然的因果原因。profit跟质量也无关系。很可能treating price is significantly lower。

　　2. 成功率不能说明问题。缺乏其他的证据，忽略了他因：比如因为质量高，所以很多serious illness的，而送往其他医院的一般都是common cases.

　　3. 时间不能代表问题。因为那些医生所做的研究很可能帮助他们进行治疗。

　　19 3次

　　说有个航空公司利润下降了，因为燃料费涨了，年初又新开辟了几条航线增加了成本。不过所有其它航空公司都有盈利，说明不是燃料费涨了的问题，而是新航线的问题。所以应该取消这些新航线。

　　V2：首先是去年有个 airline&aposs profit declined by 20%， the oil cost increased and this airline add 5 new flights(机经这里写的是新航线~但是我觉得flights应该是又买了几个飞机吧)所以这个公司认为at least one of them cause the declined profit. 但是由于全行业都面临油价上涨，some airlines 利润却上涨了，所以这家航空公司觉得就是new flights的问题~所以决定今天初应该eliminate these new flights

　　20 题库124 The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Carlo’s Clothing to the staff.

　　“Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year, its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. While the Disc Depot’s owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlo’s Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therore switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot.

　　Carlo&aposs服饰老板给员工的备忘录：

　　由于Disc Depot，相邻街区的音像店从去年开始新的电台广告，它的业务显著增长，从商店人流量的大量增加就可以看出。当Disc Depot的老板显然已经足够富有可以退休时，Carlo&aposs服饰的利润3年来一直停滞不变。为了促进我们的销售和利润，我们应该像DiscDepot一样从报纸广告转向经常的电台广告.

　　提纲：

　　1， 人流量是否代表利润?

　　2， CARLO的停滞是否有其他原因

　　3， 错误类比。——服装与音像。

　　1， The foot trafic into the store and the increase of owners&apos personal wealth can not indicate the business growth of the Disc Depot.

　　2， The author commits a fallacy of all things are equal.

　　3， The author commits a fallacy of false analogy.

　　4， Other factors other than the radio advertisement that may contribute to the business growth of Disc depot should be considered and ruled out. Likewise, it is possible that there are some other reasons can explain the stagnant profit of carlo&aposs clothing.

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