十二月的机经刚分享完，紧接着新年的GMAT机经就整理出来了，为大家分享关于投资倾向实验的机经，希望大家能感受到这股暖意，并把它化为能量，在GMAT考试的道路上勇往直前。

　　旧实验：

　　说一个人，为了证明一种叫...invest bias(好像是啊)的理论，设计了一种实验。把投资人分

　　为两组，分别投资到两个项目中去。然后告诉一组人，他们的投资的其中一个项目回报率很

　　低，结果很多人把更多的钱投入到这个项目中去。告诉另外一组人， 他们的他一个项目投

　　资回报率很高，结果他们不愿意花更多的钱投入原来的项目了。

　　新实验：

　　另外一个人不同意他的结果，认为这种结果不是 general 的情况，而且他的实验设计本身

　　存在问题。所以又设计了另外一种实验，也是两组人两种投资，但是投资的项目不同了，好

　　像不只两种，得出的结论就不一样了。

　　※ 背景知识：

　　Escalation Bias: Does ItExtend to Marketing?

　　JEscalation bias implies that managers favor reinvestments in projects that are

　　doing poorly over those doing well. We tested this implication in a marketing

　　context by conducting experiments on advertising and product-design decisions.

　　Each situation was varied to rlect either a long-term or a short-term decision.

　　Besides these four conditions, we conducted three replications. We found little

　　evidence of escalationbias by 365 subjects in the seven experimental comparisons.

　　Research on sunk costs shows that decision makers oftencontinue to invest

　　unwisely because of commitments to priorinvestments (e.g., Arkes and Blumer

　　1985). Escalationresearch, starting withStaw (1976), yields evidence consistentwith

　　research on the sunk-cost fallacy. In addition, escalation research has concluded

　　that committed managersare likely to reinvest more inaproject when they

　　receiveinformation that the project is doing poorly than if told it isdoing well. This

　　has been called "escalation bias." This biasof "throwing good money after bad" has

　　intuitive appeal.Should marketing managers be concerned about escalationbias?

　　Common sense would say "yes." We examinedwhether escalation bias is likely to

　　lead to poor marketingJournal of the Academy of Marketing ScienceVolume 21,

　　Number 3, pages 247-253.Copyright 9 1993 by Academy of Marketing Science.All

　　rights of reproduction in any form reserved.ISSN 0092-0703.

　　decisions. We first provide a bri review of the literature.This is followed by a

　　series ofexperiments to test whetherescalation bias occurs in marketing decision

　　making.Ourhypothesis was that escalation bias would occur for marketing decisions.

　　BRIEF EVALUATION OF PRIOR RESEARCH

　　When people make a decision, they often develop a commitmentto it. This

　　seems especially likely for people inorganizations. For example, Fox and Staw (1979)

　　showedthat "trapped administrators" showed a higher level of commitmentto a

　　previous course of action than "nontrappedadministrators." If decisions turn out

　　poorly, the "escalationof commitment" hypothesis suggests that they may invest

　　further so as to make the decision turn out well. Conlon and Parks (1987) called this

　　retrospective rationality. In simple terms, decision makers are often unwilling to

　　take a loss. Staw (1981, p. 577) commented that: Because it is often possible for

　　persons who have suffered a setback to recoup their losses through an even greater

　　commitment of resources to this same course of action, a cycle of escalating

　　commitment can be produced. Staw and Ross (1987a) and Garland (1990)

　　summarized a variety of reasons for the existence of escalation bias. For example,

　　managers may be affected by partial reinforcement and have difficulty accepting

　　information that rewards have disappeared. They might also distort negative

　　information through perceptual dense mechanisms. Organization-JAMS 247

　　SUMMER, 1993

　　以上就是关于GMAT机经的全部内容，考生朋友可以有选择的看看，最后需要提醒各位的是，GMAT机经虽然会对我们解题有所帮助，但是在考场中即使题目很像也要避免秒选，最后祝大家都能考出好成绩。

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